The upfront has wrapped for the most part, and most of the major networks plan to hold back more inventory for the scatter market in hopes of finding better pricing. Good luck guys! It’s going to be ugly out there for the nets with extra inventory over the next few quarters of scatter selling. For one, there is going to be A LOT more inventory available to buyers, making it difficult for any net to drive pricing up over upfront rates (which admittedly weren’t great but come on, we’re in a recession). For another, if the fall season turns out to be solid ratingswise—and most buyers and analysts felt this was one of the strongest development periods in years—then the networks won’t need to use up as many audience deficiency units (makegoods), further adding to the inventory glut in scatter. Throw a few more logs on the fire—the continual improvement in selling digital as an alternative to TV, confusion sown by the increased use of DVRs—and the networks could follow this soft upfront with a few of the worst scatter quarters since the 1990s. To be fair, the networks aren’t dumb: they have their reasons for this strategy. They really believe a lot of marketers held back dollars that need to get spent. The sales chiefs (and their corporate task-masters like Les Moonves, pictured) also have their fingers crossed for a recovery of sorts for the domestic auto category. If that all turns out to be true, and the economy somehow recovers magically, then I’m
wrong. Sadly, I fear I’m right…
—Posted by Michael Bürgi
